With the death of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Quds force, there is now an urgent question of what the repercussions are going to be and whether or not we are going to have more fighting in the Middle East.
The Trump administration, and it supporters and hacks in and out of the media, believe that the killing of Soleimani will lead to a decrease in hostilities. They tout the idea of, “peace through strength”. And they scorn President Obama as having sought “appeasement” with America’s deadly enemies. So they killed Soleimani with a drone strike. Iran’s most famous general, and a stupid and poorly thought out escalation. And Trump has even announced that America has 52 sites that can/will be attacked if Iran looks to retaliate against us.
So, are we going to have more war or less?
More.
The killing of Soleimani has outraged Iran and there are already threats from the government of retaliation and revenge. Given its past history with the United States this is already good evidence that there will be, overtly or covertly, more killing. However, there are some complicating factors that a good progressive would understand but Trump, and the Reactionary Republicans, don’t seem to grasp.
-It was a drone that killed Soleimani
America did not kill Soleimani in a straight up military fight to the death. We caught him unaware with a drone strike from high up in the air. And the use of drones by the American military is hated by virtually everyone where they hit the ground.
America has used thousands of drones and drone strikes to kill people. They can be hugely successful, and do not expose our pilots to immediate danger. But they they tend to either miss their targets or kill and maim innocent (yes, innocent) civilians. Ordinary people everywhere are outraged by these actions, and even the most despicable of tyrants can easily exploit drone strike mistakes to stoke anger and hatred.
And the U.S. has known this for a long time. Way back in 2006 military and intelligence experts such as Stanley McChrystal, Michael Flynn and Richard Clark plainly stated that drone strikes in particular were creating more terrorists than they were killing and ought to be stopped.
McChrystal, in particular, was very clear about the consequences of killing people with drones, “The resentment created by American use of unmanned strikes is much greater than the Average American appreciates … they are hated on a visceral level even by people who have never seen one or the effects of one.” (1)
The killing of Iran’s top commander was bad enough for the Iranians. but to do it with a drone, even if there were not civilian casualties, will only put Middle East fuel on the fire for revenge among the Iranians.
-There are still tons of American soldiers all over the Middle East.
In the background of the Soleimani assassination (to the Iranians) there is still the reality of thousands of American soldiers all over the Middle East, and particularly on the Arabian peninsula. And nobody between Amman and Tehran likes that.
Currently, the U.S. has at least 50,000 troops deployed to the general middle eastern area, with military personnel in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Oman and the UAE. There are also about 14,000 troops in Afghanistan. (2)
That’s a lot of Americans to the north, northwest, south and west of the Iranians. And I am sure that everyone in Iran is always aware of that. And I am also sure that the Iranians believe that no matter how much time passes, or what happens, the Americans just don’t seem to leave. And then they kill one of your main guys.
-Trump was stupid enough to move the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem
Soleimani was the head of the Quds force. Do you know what Quds means? In Arabic Al-Quds is the name for Jerusalem.
Why is that important? Because every Muslim in the world believes that Jerusalem is on the of the three Holy cities of the Islamic world. And it is the only one of the three that is not under Muslim control. It is under the control of the Israelis.
And ever since Israel became a modern country its capital has been in Tel Aviv. And because Tel Aviv has been the capital of Israel every official embassy has been there. And having them there was always seen as a way to not unnecessarily antagonize Muslims and create tensions.
Until Trump came along. In an effort to ingratiate himself to American Jews and support fellow reactionary politician Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump was stupid enough to move our official embassy to Jerusalem. And to recognize that city as the official capital of Israel. And, of course, you know that it was seen by every Muslim in the world as an insult and effort to denigrate their beliefs.
The Iranian leaders really hate the Israeli government, and they hate the calculated insult of Trump deliberately moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem. Like other Muslims they see this as America’s and Israel’s effort to permanently take Jerusalem away from the Muslims and make their own. They hate that Trump says he wants to stop endless war and bring home our troops but hasn’t. They hate his bigotry towards all Muslims.
Will there be more fighting and killing in the Middle East because of the killing of Qasem Soleimani.
The Easy Answer is: yes, expect it.
References
1) Quartz Ideas, “Drone strikes are creating hatred towards America that will last for generations” Sally Kohn, 12/19/15
2) Axios PM, “Where U.S. troops and military assets are deployed in the Middle East”, Rashaan Ayesh, 9/21/19
Post Note:
I wrote this blog entry this morning. Major news agencies have now reported that Iran has fired more than a dozen ballistic missiles (those are the big ones) from Iran at two military bases in Iraq where there are American and coalition personnel.
The Iranian government has officially claimed responsibility for this. And they did it almost as soon as the body of Qasem Soleimani was buried. Moreover, they have announced through Iranian state TV that more retaliation is coming.
Peace through strength, indeed! A decrease in hostility, right! Draft dodger Donny and his tough talking ways have already created a very dangerous escalation in a very dangerous place. Progressives right - Reactionary Republicans wrong.